News

Back to the list

AEB Real Estate Day 2017

27.09.2017

On September 27, 2017 the AEB Real Estate Committee held its annual conference “AEB Real Estate Day 2017”.


The event was opened by Frank Schauff, AEB CEO and Filippo Baldisserotto, AEB Board member, AEB Real Estate Committee Chairman, Managing Partner, Italcantieri. Mr. Schauff welcomed the event participants, briefed about the AEB upcoming events and invited conference guests to join the Association. 


1st session 

The first panel “Real Estate 2017:  is this the new normal?” started with a short overview by 4 experts from different brokerage companies on the macroeconomic environment and the current state and outlook for the main subsectors of the Russian real estate market. The panel was moderated by Holger Mueller, Managing Director of the Real Estate Department, PwC.

The overwhelming view was that we have reached the bottom of the cycle, but that it remains to be seen, however, for how long we will stay there. There have been nevertheless nuances for each of the sectors. 

As for elite residential in Moscow - the sort of apartments typically rented by expats - the market has stabilized and there are even first tendencies for a rebound. The structure of the market has changed in the aftermath of the crisis: on the demand side the share of European and US tenants has decreased, while that of domestic and Asian tenants has gone up. On the supply side it seems worth to note that the area along Leningradsky prospect has strongly gone up in demand. 

The outlook for the retail and logistics market was rather subdued. Participants found it important to emphasize that while the overall market remains weak, there is still good potential for more sophisticated product. However, buildings built at the beginning of the last decade and which are now out of date will find it increasingly difficult to lease out.

Most critical looks the state of the office market. True, rents have gone down strongly already. However, vacancy is still high. In view of the rather low rate of GDP growth it will take some time until the current high vacancies are mopped up and the market will be back in balance."

ROD_4407.jpg

L-R: Viacheslav Kholopov, Regional Director, Industrial & Warehouses Department, Russia and CIS, JLL, Daniel Savchenko, Managing Partner, Evans, Holger Mueller,  Managing Director of the Real Estate Department, PwC, Denis Sokolov, Partner, Head of Research Department, Cushman & Wakefield, Veronika Lezhneva, Director of Analytical Department, Colliers International Russia,



2nd session 

The 2nd panel of the Conference comprised leading executives from Russian and international commercial and residential developers and investors, and was moderated by Tomi Asanti of Sponda (now part of Blackstone Group).

The focus of the panelists’ discussion was on expected returns for developers and investors from designing, developing and investing into all types of real estate in Russia. The challenge with the logistics segment is the currently high vacancy of existing warehouses (exceeding 20%) which makes speculative development impossible and allows only limited build-to-suit projects (such as Radius Group is doing for Auchan outside of Moscow). Office segment has seen very limited new deliver the past years, thus, investing into office development or direct investments have started to pick up already. Retail rents were discussed to be stable and most often tight to turnover of the tenant which of course increases risks for the real estate owner while providing some upside.  Residential segment was discussed in length by the panel which also received many questions and remarks from the active audience. In particular, Moscow and St Petersburg still see a large annual immigration from the regional cities which keep demand for residential products stable and prices of flats balanced, which is good news for developer’s returns while reducing risks. 

ROD_4572.jpg

L-R: Timo Hokkanen, General Director, SRV Stroi, Stefano Carosi, Head of Real Estate Finance, AO UniCredit Bank, Maxim Gasiev, President, PSN Group, Tomi Asanti, Head of the Representative Office, Sponda Russia, Teemu Helppolainen, Deputy Chairman of the AEB Board, Head of segment, Housing Russia, YIT Group, Julia Riabtseva, Senior Project Partner, Drees & Sommer, Andrey Kolokolnikov, Executive Director, Morgan Stanley, Zakhar Valkov, Executive Director, Radius Group.

The AEB sincerely thanks Stupino 1 Industrial Park for sponsoring the event. 

Presentations from the event are available HERE

For more photos please visit our Facebook page.

Also read a reportage about Real Estate Day 2017 in E -Vesti. 

Share: